Target Corp. (TGT) — New Leadership, Store Expansion, and a Technical Trend Reversal
Target Corp. (TGT) trades around $120 and may finally be showing signs of life after several difficult years. The company recently appeared on a “Best Stocks” watchlist for the first time in years, largely because the underlying story is beginning to shift both fundamentally and technically.
The latest catalyst came with Target’s most recent earnings report. The stock jumped 7% following the release, marking its best day since last year’s post-“Liberation Day” rally. While revenue slightly missed expectations, earnings per share beat estimates. Fourth-quarter net sales came in at $30.5 billion, down 1.5% year over year, but several key categories showed strength. Food & Beverage, Beauty, and Toys posted growth, while non-merchandise revenue surged more than 25%, helped by membership revenue that more than doubled from the prior year.
This bounce comes after a long period of underperformance. At one point the stock had suffered a 68% drawdown, even worse than the 64% decline during the Global Financial Crisis. After the pandemic-era surge in consumer spending, Target’s net income fell 60% in 2023, and although earnings began to recover in 2024, store traffic remained weak amid consumer softness and company controversies.
The silver lining is that much of that pain is already reflected in the valuation. Target currently trades at a trailing P/E of about 15, which is cheaper than the sector average, industry average, the overall market, and its own historical multiples over the past three, five, and ten years. In other words, expectations are still relatively low even as the company attempts a turnaround.
That turnaround effort began February 1, when Target implemented significant leadership changes. The company installed a new CEO, Mike Fiddelke, added new board members, and reorganized leadership with a focus on simplicity, speed, and accelerating growth. The new team is prioritizing merchandising authority and improving the overall customer experience.
The investment plan behind that strategy is significant. Target plans to open 30 new full-size stores in 2026 while also completing 130 store remodels. Management believes these initiatives could drive an additional 2%–4% annual sales growth once implemented.
Another underappreciated piece of the story is Target’s growing advertising business. Its retail media platform, Roundel, allows brands to advertise directly to Target customers using the company’s first-party data. Management describes Roundel as a “margin-rich revenue source” already generating about $2 billion annually and growing at mid-teen rates. Target has stated a goal of doubling Roundel’s size over the next five years, which could become a meaningful contributor to profitability.
From a technical perspective, the chart has also begun to improve. Earlier this winter the stock reclaimed its 200-day moving average around $100, marking a potential long-term trend reversal. Since then, shares have climbed steadily toward the $120 level, while the 50-day moving average has turned upward and now sits around $108, creating a rising support level that did not exist throughout most of 2025. Momentum indicators have also strengthened, with RSI holding in the low-to-mid 60s, a healthier range than the weak readings that defined the prior downtrend.
Wall Street is cautiously warming back up to the name, though analysts remain conservative after years of disappointment. Most price targets are clustered around the $120 to low-$130 range, roughly where the stock trades today. That cautious positioning leaves room for upside if the turnaround gains traction. For perspective, Target’s prior highs were closer to $175, suggesting significant upside potential if the business stabilizes and investor confidence returns.
From a risk standpoint, the chart offers fairly clear levels to watch. A break below the 50-day moving average near $108 would be the first sign the rally is losing momentum. The more important support sits around the 200-day near $99–$100, which marked the major trend reversal earlier this year. As long as the stock holds above that level and the moving averages continue to trend higher, the path of least resistance appears to be upward.
Target is still very much a turnaround story, but between the leadership overhaul, new store investment, growth in its high-margin ad business, and improving price action, the stock is beginning to attract attention again after years in the penalty box.
