Every year around this time, someone reminds me of the old saying: “Sell in May and go away.”
I’ve been hearing it for 40 years. And every year, I have to decide whether to listen.
Today is May 1st. Apple just reported the best quarter in the company’s history. The S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high this morning. And I’m watching my inbox fill up with people asking whether they should be worried about the calendar.
So let me give you my honest answer.
The Pattern Is Real. Here’s What the Numbers Actually Say.
This isn’t just a rumor. The data backs it up. Since 1988, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 6.61% from November through April. The May through October stretch? Just 3.27%, according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research. Bank of America looked at 98 years of data and found the same thing: May through October has historically returned about 2.4% on average.
So the pattern exists. Summer really is weaker, on average, than winter.
But here’s what the seasonal traders don’t tell you: the pattern is weak enough that acting on it costs most people more than it saves them.
Why This Year Looks Different
The “Sell in May” strategy tends to work best when the market is tired. When valuations are stretched, earnings are disappointing, and investors are looking for any excuse to take profits. That’s not what 2026 looks like right now.
This week, four of the biggest companies on earth reported earnings. Three of them delivered results that exceeded what Wall Street expected. Microsoft Azure grew 40%. Amazon Web Services grew 28% at a 15-quarter high. Apple posted $143.8 billion in revenue — the largest quarter in the company’s history. iPhone sales grew 23% year over year.
This isn’t a tired market finding excuses to stay up. This is a market getting fundamental confirmation that the AI buildout is actually producing revenue. That changes the seasonal calculus.
What I’m Actually Doing
I’m not selling in May. I haven’t sold in May based on a calendar in 40 years, and I don’t intend to start now.
But I am paying attention to what the seasonal pattern is really telling us. Summer tends to be quieter. Volume drops. Big investors go on vacation. Volatility can pick up without warning. Moves that seem random often are.
What that means practically: I want to own companies with real earnings, real cash flow, and real reasons for investors to hold them through a slow stretch. Not momentum plays. Not companies that need a news cycle to stay afloat. The boring stuff we covered Tuesday — Coca-Cola, Verizon, companies that pay you while you wait — that’s exactly the kind of position you want heading into summer.
The seasonal pattern isn’t a sell signal. It’s a quality filter. Own your best positions going into May. Trim the ones you were going to trim anyway. And don’t let a calendar make decisions for you.
Forty years of investing has taught me one thing about market adages: they’re useful until everyone knows them. At that point, they mostly just generate anxiety.
— Tom
