Vaccine Stocks Plummet as New Variant Subsides

On Monday, shares of the major vaccine manufacturers took a fall as the record surge of new infections subsided, with cases declining swiftly throughout the country.

Moderna (MRNA) fell more than 11% on Monday, the most significant drop in the S&P 500. Pfizer (PFE) was down almost 2%, BioNTech (BNTX) was down more than 9%, while Novavax (NVAX) was down more than 11%, and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was down more than 1%.

According to the White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. is no longer in the “full-blown pandemic phase of the virus.” According to statistics provided by Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. recorded a seven-day average of around 175,000 new cases each day as of Sunday, down 42% from the previous week.

• What’s to come for the pandemic recovery, and how will it relate to our economic recovery?
• What can we expect moving forward?

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Because MRNA‘s vaccine is its only commercial product, its stock may be vulnerable to future drops if vaccination demand falls. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, over 64% of the US population has been completely immunized with two doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or one dosage of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

While vaccinations are still being administered to Americans, the national immunization rate is increasing at a far slower pace than in the early pandemic stages.

Last summer, it took a little over two months for the percentage of fully vaccinated Americans to rise from 40% to 50%, and then another four months to reach 60%. Since December 6th, it has increased by four percentage points. Vaccines peaked in December when states reported the first instances of the variant but have since dropped. According to the most recent CDC statistics available as of February 8th, the U.S. administered an average of 443,000 injections per day over the past week, down from a December high of more than 1.7 million doses per day and record levels of over 3.5 million shots per day in April.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) postponed plans to fast rush approval of PFE and BNTX vaccinations for children under the age of five on Friday. The FDA had intended to approve the first two doses of what would eventually be a three-dose vaccination as early as this month. PFE and the FDA, on the other hand, have decided to wait until data on the third dosage is submitted in April of this year.

PFE and BNTX are also working on a specific vaccination for the new variant. The injection will be available in March, according to CEO Albert Bourla, though it’s unclear if it would be required if incidences continue to fall. MRNA has recently begun testing on a variant-specific booster injection. The FDA has not yet approved the vaccine developed by NVAX. If public health conditions improve, it’s uncertain how much demand for NVAX’s vaccine will exist in the U.S. after the business wins regulatory approval.