On Friday afternoon, the President of the United States canceled his weekend plans.
That might not sound like much. Presidents change their schedules all the time. But when Donald Trump – a man who has spent virtually every weekend of his presidency at Mar-a-Lago – suddenly decides to stay at the White House… you should pay attention.
Because the reason he stayed tells you everything you need to know about where oil prices are headed next.
Let me explain.
Right now, as you read this, the U.S. military is positioned and prepared to strike Iran. CNN confirmed it Friday evening. The Pentagon has the assets in place. The plans are drawn. The only thing missing is the president’s signature.
And Trump himself told reporters – on camera – that he is “considering a limited military strike.”
I want you to think about those words for a moment. A sitting U.S. president just told the world he’s weighing a military strike against one of the largest oil producers on Earth.
The financial media treated it like another headline. CNBC ran a segment. Bloomberg mentioned it in passing. And then everyone went back to arguing about the Supreme Court tariff ruling.
They’re making a catastrophic mistake.
Because what’s about to happen in the oil market isn’t just a “geopolitical risk.” It’s a mathematically inevitable repricing that most investors are completely unprepared for.
Here’s what the analysts aren’t telling you.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies – one of Washington’s most respected think tanks – just published a detailed analysis mapping out four scenarios for what happens to oil if Trump pulls the trigger. I’ve read it. Twice. And I don’t think most people understand what’s in it.
Scenario 1: A naval blockade of Iranian crude shipments. Iran currently exports about 1.6 million barrels per day, almost entirely to China. Block those shipments and China has to bid for substitute supply on the global market. CSIS estimates this alone would add $10-12 per barrel to the price of crude – overnight. And that’s the mild scenario.
Scenario 2: Iran retaliates by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Up to 18 million barrels per day transit through that chokepoint. Eighteen million. That’s roughly 20% of the world’s total oil consumption flowing through a channel where the shipping lanes are two miles wide. CSIS says this scenario could push crude past $90 – potentially well past it.
Scenario 3: Direct strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure. This is where JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva says things get serious. An attack on Kharg Island – which handles nearly all of Iran’s crude exports – could knock those 1.6 million barrels offline for months, not days. CSIS says this scenario breaks $100 per barrel.
Scenario 4: Iran strikes back at Gulf oil facilities. Saudi Aramco. Iraqi offshore terminals. Qatari LNG export hubs. CSIS describes this as a “historic oil price spike” – potentially exceeding the $130 per barrel we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Read that list again. Every single scenario results in higher oil prices. The only question is how much higher.
And here’s the part that should really concern you.
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just an oil chokepoint. It’s also the world’s most important corridor for liquefied natural gas. Qatar alone ships more than 10 billion cubic feet of LNG through the Strait every day.
If that flow gets disrupted? The ripple effects hit everything from electricity bills in Europe to heating costs right here in America.
CSIS put it plainly: an LNG disruption “could increase electric power prices as far away as the United States.”
In other words, this isn’t just about the price of gasoline. It’s about the cost of running your home. Your business. Your life.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking: “Tom, the military hasn’t actually struck yet. This could blow over.”
And you’re right – it could. But here’s the thing about geopolitical risk: the market doesn’t wait for the bombs to drop. The market prices in probabilities. And right now, the probability of a U.S.-Iran military confrontation is the highest it’s been since January 2020, when we killed Qasem Soleimani.
Bloomberg reported Friday that oil is already holding near a six-month high. Gold just broke above $5,000 for the first time in history – and it’s not because people are suddenly excited about jewelry.
The smart money is positioning. Right now. This weekend. While the financial newsletters are closed and the cable news pundits are on vacation.
Here’s a number that tells the story: Goldman Sachs now projects gold could reach $5,400 by end of 2026. That’s not some gold bug’s fantasy – that’s Goldman Sachs.
Why? Because the analysts there understand something most retail investors don’t: we’re not dealing with one crisis. We’re dealing with four of them, all converging at the same time.
Iran is just the first.
What does this mean for your money?
I’m not going to sugarcoat it. If you’re sitting in a standard 60/40 portfolio right now – 60% stocks, 40% bonds – you’re exposed. Badly.
A military strike on Iran doesn’t just affect oil stocks. It ripples through transportation, manufacturing, retail, consumer spending, and the bond market. It affects every company that ships a product, heats a building, or pays an energy bill – which is to say, every company.
The investors who will come through this in good shape are the ones who understand the convergence that’s happening. Iran is one piece of a much larger puzzle – and tomorrow, I’m going to show you the second piece.
It involves the Supreme Court, a furious president, and a 10% tax on everything America imports.
If you want to understand how these converging forces could reshape the investment landscape, Porter Stansberry’s research on “America’s New 1776 Moment” lays out a detailed framework for positioning your portfolio. It’s the best analysis I’ve seen on what’s really happening.
Tomorrow: Part 2 – “The Supreme Court Just Broke the Trade War Wide Open”
Tom Anderson is the editor of Wall Street Watchdogs. Over the next four days, he’s publishing an emergency series on the four crises converging on the American economy – and what you can do to protect your wealth.
P.S. If you’re the kind of investor who waits for confirmation before acting, consider this your warning shot. Gold doesn’t break $5,000 because everything is fine. The President doesn’t cancel his weekend because there’s nothing to worry about. And the military doesn’t move assets into position as a bluff. Porter Stansberry has been tracking these exact forces for months – his 1776 research report explains why this convergence is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes.
