PulteGroup (PHM) – A Homebuilder Breaking Out as Housing Tailwinds Build
PulteGroup is starting to look like one of the strongest setups in the housing space right now, and the price action is telling a story investors should pay attention to. The stock trades around $140 and is pushing back toward prior highs after spending months consolidating. That matters because price often moves before fundamentals do, and in this case the move suggests improving conditions ahead for the company and the broader housing market.
Several underlying factors support that view. Mortgage rates are nearly 1% lower than they were a year ago, and wages for Pulte’s core buyers are up about 4% year over year. That combination improves affordability, which management flagged in January as a positive shift for demand. At the same time, the U.S. is still underbuilt by an estimated 3 to 4 million homes, creating a structural supply shortage that favors builders with scale and national reach. PulteGroup fits that description, operating across multiple price points through its Pulte Homes, Del Webb, and Centex brands.
The technical setup reinforces the fundamental backdrop. The stock peaked back in October 2024, well before revenue topped out, then corrected and traded sideways through late 2025. Now it is pressing toward resistance again, with momentum indicators still relatively calm. RSI sits in the mid‑60s, which supports the rally without signaling overheating, and recent tests of the 200‑day moving average showed strong buying interest each time.
Zooming out, the longer‑term chart reveals a large multi‑year cup‑and‑handle pattern, one of the most bullish formations technicians watch for. A confirmed breakout above $140 could open the door to a move toward $150, and if that level gives way, the upside could accelerate. On the downside, risk management is straightforward. A weekly close below $120 would signal that the setup has weakened and needs time to rebuild.
With improving affordability trends, a persistent housing shortage, and a technically strong chart, PulteGroup looks like a compelling name for investors who want exposure to an area of the market showing real strength right now.
