Hilton Worldwide Holdings (NYSE: HLT) Breaking out of a year-long base as travel demand stays strong into 2026
After watching price action closely through most of 2025, Hilton now looks like a textbook example of how leadership stocks tend to behave before the next leg higher. The shares spent much of the year consolidating, digesting prior gains while travel demand quietly stayed resilient. That base finally resolved higher in Q4, with Hilton breaking above a full year of congestion just as rates eased and visibility for 2026 improved.
What stands out to us is the combination of price strength and fundamentals lining up at the same time. U.S. travel spending remained robust all year, and the U.S. Travel Association expects total travel spend to have reached roughly $1.5 trillion in 2025, up year over year. Looking ahead, a packed calendar of major U.S. events begins in 2026, including the FIFA World Cup, followed by the 2028 Olympics and other large-scale global events that should support hotel demand for years. Business travel is also gradually coming back, with domestic business travel expected to have grown again in 2025 and pricing power improving longer term.
From a company standpoint, Hilton expects earnings per share growth in the 12% to 13% range for 2026. The stock trades around $280, putting it at roughly 32 times forward earnings, a premium multiple that reflects both strong execution and improving demand visibility. The recent breakout came after months of accumulation, a pattern that historically tends to precede positive fundamental surprises rather than negative ones.
From a risk management perspective, longer-term investors can stay with the trend while using the rising 50-week moving average as a guide, checking weekly for any meaningful break. Shorter-term traders will be watching the rising 50-day, currently near the mid-$270s, for signs of momentum fatigue. Absent a clear breakdown, the next logical area of interest is a test of the $300 level, which aligns with the top of the prior multi-year range.
With travel demand holding up better than most discretionary categories and Hilton emerging from a long consolidation phase, this setup offers a compelling mix of trend strength, visibility, and disciplined risk control going into 2026.
