Rivian Automotive (RIVN): A Young EV Maker Hitting Real Milestones at the Right Time
Rivian trades around $15, and even with all the noise around tariffs and shifting EV incentives, the company has quietly put together one of its strongest stretches of operational progress since going public. What stood out to me is how much of this momentum is coming from areas that actually matter for long-term scale: gross profit, software economics, and a product pipeline that finally lines up with where demand is heading.
The third quarter showed the clearest shift yet. Rivian posted a $24 million gross profit when Wall Street expected another loss. That swing didn’t come out of thin air. Automotive gross profit improved by $249 million compared with last year, and software and services added another $154 million. When you see both sides of the business moving in the right direction, it usually means something fundamental is clicking behind the scenes.
One reason the software contribution is accelerating is the partnership with Volkswagen. This deal was initially described as roughly $5.8 billion spread across milestones, but the details make it look far more significant. Volkswagen plans to begin winter testing of the joint technology by year-end, which would trigger another $1 billion payment. If the timeline holds, Rivian could see that cash far sooner than the market seems to expect. More importantly, Rivian’s SSP software architecture is being built for scale. Volkswagen expects the platform to reach up to 30 million vehicles across its brands by the end of the decade. There is also the potential for Rivian and Volkswagen to license the technology to third parties, which could add a meaningful revenue stream over time.
For a company still in the early stages of scaling, clarity on the product roadmap matters. The R2 is set to launch in the first half of next year at a $45,000 price point, which directly targets the heart of the US auto market. Rivian cut roughly $2.25 billion in capital costs by shifting R2 production to its existing Illinois plant, which gives the company more room to navigate a competitive EV environment. The follow-on products, the R3 and R3X, are positioned specifically to build incremental scale with lower-cost vehicles. Rivian even has early concepts for the R4 and R5, which would push prices down further. This is exactly the type of lineup a young automaker needs if it wants to cross the profitability threshold and stay there.
The company ended the third quarter with more than $7 billion in cash and slightly more in available liquidity. That is enough to carry Rivian through the R2 launch and into the early stages of the next models. It is still a high-risk name simply because all early EV manufacturers are high-risk, but Rivian has lined up several real tailwinds at the same time the stock is still sitting near its lower range. Between accelerating gross profit, a software partnership that could eventually scale to tens of millions of vehicles, and a realistic product pipeline, Rivian looks better positioned heading into 2026 than at any point in the last two years.
