Earnings season has been solid so far. About 82% of S&P 500 companies are beating expectations, which is great. But here’s what we’ve been paying closer attention to: companies where analysts can’t stop raising their estimates in the weeks before they report.
That tells us something different than a simple beat or miss. It means the story is changing in real time, and Wall Street is scrambling to keep up. And right now, we’re seeing it play out across several companies set to report earnings this week.
We dug through the data looking for stocks with serious upward estimate revisions over the past three months. What we found was a tight group of companies where analysts have been scrambling to adjust their models higher, sometimes by massive margins. These aren’t just small tweaks—we’re talking 20%, 40%, even 70%+ increases in earnings estimates.
Here’s what caught our eye.
Robinhood: The Prediction Market Play
Twenty-seven upward revisions in three months. That’s not a typo.
Robinhood’s expected to post 54 cents per share in earnings this quarter—a number that’s jumped 76% in just the past three months and 81% over six months. The stock’s already up 181% over the last half year, but analysts keep finding reasons to push estimates higher.
The driver? Prediction markets. Deutsche Bank analysts are now modeling $155 million in revenue from this segment next year alone. Add in solid execution across their core trading platform, and you’ve got a company that’s firing on multiple cylinders.
We’ve been watching Robinhood’s expansion beyond just retail trading, and this diversification is starting to show up in the numbers. The question now is whether the stock’s run has priced in all the good news, or if there’s more room to run.
Allstate: The Insurance Dark Horse
Here’s one that doesn’t get enough attention. Allstate has racked up 53—yes, 53—upward estimate revisions over the past three months. Current estimates put them at $7.52 per share, up 72% from three months ago and 73% from six months back.
Insurance isn’t sexy, but those kinds of estimate increases don’t happen by accident. Something fundamental is shifting in their business, and analysts are playing catch-up. Whether it’s better underwriting, improved claims management, or pricing power finally showing up in margins, Allstate’s quietly having a moment.
This is the kind of stock that tends to fly under the radar until it doesn’t.
Skyworks Solutions: The Chip Stock Everyone Forgot
While everyone’s been obsessed with Nvidia and the AI chip narrative, Skyworks has been quietly grinding higher. Analysts have revised estimates up 23 times in three months, pushing expected earnings to $1.40 per share—a 43% jump from three months ago and 52% higher than six months back.
Skyworks makes connectivity chips for smartphones and other devices. Not as flashy as AI accelerators, but turns out people still need phones that actually work. With Apple’s iPhone cycle showing resilience and 5G infrastructure builds continuing globally, Skyworks is benefiting from steady, unsexy demand.
Sometimes the best plays aren’t the ones everyone’s talking about.
CF Industries: The Fertilizer Trade You’re Ignoring
CF Industries might be the most dramatic story in this entire batch. Expected earnings of $2.16 per share represent a 98%—nearly double—increase from six months ago. Twenty-one upward revisions in three months tells you analysts are still trying to figure out just how good things are getting for this fertilizer manufacturer.
Agricultural commodity prices have been all over the place, but fertilizer demand remains solid. Global food security concerns aren’t going away, and CF Industries is positioned right in the middle of that trend. This is another unsexy name that’s posting sexy numbers.
Ralph Lauren: The Luxury Comeback
Fashion retail is supposed to be dead, right? Someone forgot to tell Ralph Lauren.
The company’s expected to post $3.45 per share in earnings, with estimates up 20% over three months and 23% over six months after 24 upward revisions. The stock’s up 44% in the past six months and 60% over the past year.
Luxury has proven more resilient than people expected, especially at the higher end where Ralph Lauren plays. While fast fashion struggles with overcapacity and margins, heritage brands with pricing power are holding their own. The estimate revisions suggest this isn’t just a flash in the pan.
The Rest of the Pack
A few others worth mentioning:
Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade) is seeing similar dynamics to Ralph Lauren—20 upward revisions pushing estimates 18% higher. Accessible luxury continues to work.
Arista Networks has 24 upward revisions with estimates up 14%, benefiting from data center buildouts that aren’t slowing down anytime soon.
PTC Inc. rounds out the tech names with 17 revisions and estimates up 25% over six months. Their industrial software business is quietly becoming more relevant as manufacturing gets smarter.
What This Actually Means
When you see this kind of estimate momentum concentrated in a specific week of earnings, it’s telling you something. Either these companies are executing way better than expected, or analysts were way too conservative to begin with. Probably some of both.
The bigger question is what happens after they report. Stocks with this much positive revision activity sometimes struggle when they actually deliver the goods—it’s the “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic. But if they can beat even these elevated estimates, that’s when things get interesting.
We’re watching these reports closely, not just for the numbers themselves, but for what management says about the next quarter and beyond. Strong guidance on top of strong results? That’s the setup we’re looking for.
Earnings season isn’t just about who beats and who misses. It’s about finding companies where the narrative is shifting before everyone else catches on. Right now, these eight names have that kind of momentum.
