Earnings season continues this week, and while the U.S.-Iran conflict is dominating headlines, two companies reporting Wednesday could tell us a lot about the economy right now.
Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands hit the tape, and both have specific catalysts worth paying attention to. Here’s what matters for each report and how to think about trading them.
Delta Air Lines – Guidance Is Everything
Delta reports before the bell Wednesday. The stock is stuck in what one NYSE insider calls “no man’s land,” trading without clear direction. The report itself probably won’t change that.
What matters is guidance. Specifically, how Delta addresses surging jet fuel prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Delta delivered solid reports in March, beating revenue expectations. But that was before oil spiked and the Strait of Hormuz became a chokepoint. With Brent crude jumping on war risk and fuel costs climbing, investors need to hear how management thinks about margins going forward.
Airlines are leveraged to fuel prices. When oil moves 10-15% in a few weeks, it shows up in the P&L quickly. Delta’s guidance will signal whether they can pass costs through to customers via higher ticket prices or if margins are about to compress.
The stock has been range-bound, so don’t expect the report alone to break it out either direction. But if guidance is weaker than expected because of fuel costs, that’s a negative catalyst. If they’re confident in maintaining margins despite higher input costs, that’s the bullish case.
Watch what management says, not just the backward-looking numbers.
Constellation Brands – The Turnaround Play
Constellation Brands has a more interesting setup. The stock fell over 50% from its 2024 highs but has rallied nearly 20% from November lows. It’s trading around $153 heading into the report.
This is a turnaround story. The question is whether the turnaround is real or if the stock got ahead of itself.
If the report disappoints, support sits between $149 and $145. That’s where you’d expect buyers to step in if the stock pulls back. Below that, the technical picture weakens.
If Constellation beats, the path higher opens up to $167.50. That would put the stock at levels it hasn’t seen since August, which is significant resistance. Breaking through there would confirm the turnaround narrative and likely attract more buyers.
At $153, the stock is right in the middle of these levels. The earnings report will likely determine which direction it breaks. This is a clean risk-reward setup: watch $145-149 on the downside and $167.50 on the upside.
The Iran Wildcard
None of this happens in a vacuum. The U.S.-Iran situation is still escalating, and President Trump posted over the weekend that Iran would be “living in hell” if the country refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
He then posted, without context, “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”
That’s today. As of this writing, we don’t know what happens at 8 p.m., if anything. It could be a veiled threat. It could be an announcement. It could be nothing.
But traders are on alert. If something significant happens Tuesday evening, it will impact Wednesday’s market open, which is exactly when Delta reports. Oil prices, airline stocks, and broader market sentiment could all shift overnight depending on what Trump announces or does.
That adds uncertainty to both earnings reports. Delta is directly exposed to oil prices and geopolitical risk affecting travel demand. Constellation is less directly impacted, but broader market volatility could swamp any earnings reaction.
Inflation Data Later in the Week
Two inflation reports hit Thursday and Friday that matter more than usual given the oil spike.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February comes out Thursday. That’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, but it’s backward-looking and won’t capture the recent oil spike.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March drops Friday. That’s the critical one. It will be the first look at how higher oil prices from the conflict are showing up in inflation data.
If CPI spikes, the question becomes whether it’s temporary or sustained. A one-month jump from oil might not change Fed policy. But if the oil shock persists and inflation stays elevated, the Fed has a problem.
Markets will digest that Friday morning. Expect volatility depending on where the number comes in relative to expectations.
How to Think About This Week
Wednesday’s earnings give you specific data points on two companies navigating different challenges. Delta faces direct exposure to fuel costs and geopolitical risk. Constellation is executing a turnaround with clear technical levels defining the trade.
The Iran situation is the macro overlay that could override everything. If Tuesday’s 8 p.m. deadline produces significant news, Wednesday’s market could gap in either direction before Delta even reports.
And Friday’s CPI will tell us whether the oil spike is translating into broader inflation pressure that forces the Fed’s hand.
It’s a week where earnings, geopolitics, and inflation data all intersect. That creates opportunity for traders who can navigate the volatility, but it also means you need to be nimble and respect the uncertainty.
Watch Delta’s guidance on fuel costs. Watch Constellation’s technical levels at $145-149 and $167.50. Watch what happens Tuesday at 8 p.m. And watch CPI Friday to see if inflation is spiking again.
