Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO)
A multiyear base gives way as industrial metals regain momentum
Industrial metals have quietly strengthened in the second half of 2025, and Rio Tinto is starting to stand out as one of the cleaner breakout setups in the space. After spending several years consolidating, the stock confirmed a decisive move above long-term resistance in November, ending a downtrend that had been in place since 2021. That kind of multiyear resolution tends to matter, especially for large, cyclical names like this.
From a longer-term perspective, momentum has clearly shifted. The monthly MACD recently moved into positive territory, signaling a meaningful change in trend after a prolonged period of sideways action. That aligns with what we’re seeing on the intermediate timeframe as well. Shares are holding above their rising 50-day (10-week) moving average near $70, and both weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are supportive of continued upside into year-end and beyond.
What’s especially notable is how the stock is behaving relative to the broader market. In Q4, Rio Tinto’s relative strength versus the S&P 500 has improved materially, forming what looks like a rounded bottom that’s now supported by its rising 40-week moving average. That setup suggests this isn’t just a rally in absolute terms, but one that could translate into outperformance versus U.S. equities in the first half of 2026.
Technically, the next meaningful area to watch is resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $79, which serves as a clear intermediate-term upside objective. With the stock trading around $71 and momentum building across multiple timeframes, Rio Tinto looks well positioned to benefit as industrial metals continue to attract capital heading into 2026.
