Walmart (NYSE: WMT)
A Defensive Giant Built to Hold Up When the Economy Slows
As we look ahead to 2026, one thing we keep coming back to is preparedness. The economy has been resilient, but history shows that conditions can change quickly. When that happens, we want exposure to businesses that tend to get stronger, not weaker, when consumers pull back.
Walmart fits that bill exceptionally well. The company has spent decades positioning itself as the go-to value retailer, and that strategy consistently pays off during economic slowdowns. When budgets tighten, shoppers trade down. They skip premium retailers and focus on price, convenience, and necessity. Walmart checks all three boxes.
What stands out to us is how essential Walmart’s offering really is. It is not just a discretionary retailer. It sells groceries, household staples, toiletries, clothing, and everyday items people simply cannot cut out, even during a recession. With thousands of locations nationwide, accessibility only reinforces that advantage.
History backs this up. During the Great Recession from late 2007 through mid-2009, the S&P 500 fell roughly 38%. Walmart stock, meanwhile, rose close to 4% over the same period. Past performance never guarantees future results, but that kind of relative resilience is hard to ignore.
On top of that, Walmart brings income stability. The company has increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years, earning its place as a Dividend King. That means it has navigated multiple recessions while continuing to reward shareholders, providing a cushion even when stock prices stall.
Walmart currently trades around $116, and while it is not a high-growth story, that is exactly the point. This is a stock built for durability. If economic conditions soften in 2026, Walmart looks well positioned to hold up, generate steady cash flow, and continue doing what it has done for decades: gain relevance when consumers become more careful with their money.
