Toast (TOST) — A Fintech Reset That May Be Ready to Turn Upward
Toast trades around $35, and after spending most of 2025 in the red, the setup going into next year finally looks interesting. While the stock has slipped about 4% year to date, the underlying business has quietly strengthened, and that disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals is exactly where opportunity often shows up.
What stands out most to us is how much Toast has matured operationally. The company has built one of the most recognizable modern software platforms in the restaurant industry, and that brand affinity gives it a huge advantage as restaurants upgrade outdated point-of-sale systems. Toast’s footprint continues to expand, and the path to deeper penetration remains wide open — not just with small businesses, but increasingly in enterprise and international markets as well.
The real cases for a re-rating center on growth and profitability. Toast is positioned to deliver a combination of high recurring gross profit growth (roughly 20% by JPMorgan’s estimates) and accelerating EBITDA expansion over the next several years. It’s one of the fastest growers in its peer group from 2024 through 2028 based on both revenue and improving margins. That’s not a claim many fintechs can make after this year’s turbulence.
JPMorgan’s team upgraded the stock to Overweight and set a $43 price target, about 22% above the latest close. Their reasoning echoes our own: Toast is proving that it can expand into adjacent total addressable markets using a consistent, disciplined playbook while keeping expenses in check. The analysts went as far as projecting $977 million in 2027 EBITDA, which highlights just how much operating leverage is still ahead of this business.
But even without leaning on long-dated forecasts, the near-term story is straightforward. Restaurants are overdue for modernization, Toast has the right product at the right time, and the company is showing better win rates as it adds features and scales. When a fintech platform pairs durable growth with improving cost structure, the market usually comes back around.
Toast isn’t without competition, but its brand strength, product quality, and expanding margin profile give it a real chance to shed this year’s underperformance. With expectations reset and execution improving, we think this one deserves a spot on the watchlist.
