I’ll be honest. When I first saw Trump rating his own meeting a “12 out of 10,” I rolled my eyes. But after spending the past 24 hours digging through analyst reports, trade data, and sector movements, I’m starting to think the guy wasn’t entirely full of it this time.
The Busan summit yesterday produced something we haven’t seen in years: actual, tangible agreements between Washington and Beijing. And while everyone’s focused on the headline-grabbing stuff—rare earths, soybeans, and nuclear testing (yes, really)—the real story is what this means for where you should be putting your money right now.
The Chip Play Everyone’s Getting Wrong
Here’s the thing about the rare earth minerals agreement. Yes, China’s lifting export restrictions for a year. Yes, that’s huge for semiconductor manufacturers who’ve been sweating bullets over supply chains. But if you think this is your cue to go all-in on chip stocks, you might want to pump the brakes.
We’ve been looking at China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, and their commitment to tech self-sufficiency hasn’t budged an inch. This deal buys time, sure, but it doesn’t change Beijing’s long game. The smart play here isn’t chasing semiconductors at current valuations—it’s positioning for the companies that can navigate a world where China’s supply isn’t guaranteed forever.
Defense: The Trade You’re Not Seeing
This is where it gets interesting. Rare earths don’t just power your iPhone—they’re critical for missile systems and advanced weaponry. Cheaper rare earth supplies mean lower production costs for defense contractors. We’ve been tracking this angle, and the numbers are compelling.
But here’s the twist: Trump and Xi also agreed to cooperate on Ukraine. If that actually leads somewhere and we see real progress toward ending the conflict, defense stocks could cool off fast. It’s a weird paradox—the deal helps defense companies’ margins while potentially shrinking their addressable market.
Our take? This is a sector you want to watch closely over the next 90 days, not one you want to load up on today.
Gold Is Getting Expensive (Finally)
We’ve been banging the drum about gold’s run-up for months. At one point in October, we watched it crack $4,000 an ounce, and honestly, it felt a bit insane even as it was happening.
Now that Trump’s actually sitting down and making deals—not just with China, but potentially with Brazil and India—some of that geopolitical premium is starting to evaporate. We’re seeing gold futures already pulling back, and this might just be the beginning.
We’re not saying dump your gold holdings entirely. But if you’ve been riding this rally and taking profits hasn’t crossed your mind, now might be the time to think about it. We’re penciling in $3,800 as a reasonable near-term target, which means there’s more downside than upside from here.
The China Angle Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s what caught our attention while digging through the trade data: everyone’s obsessing over U.S.-China relations, but China’s been quietly building out trade relationships across Southeast Asia and emerging markets that dwarf anything happening with America.
U.S. exports now represent just 14% of China’s total trade—down from nearly 20% a decade ago. Think about that for a second. We’re all fixated on whether Trump and Xi can play nice, but China’s already diversified away from us.
For investors, this means looking at Chinese companies with strong regional integration, not just those dependent on U.S. market access. The story isn’t about bilateral relations anymore. It’s about China’s pivot toward a multipolar trade strategy.
Soybeans: The Sleeper Hit
Okay, soybeans aren’t sexy. I get it. But hear me out.
China just agreed to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans after shifting to South American suppliers earlier this year. We’re already seeing state-owned China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation snap up 180,000 tons for December and January delivery. Prices have been climbing this week in anticipation, and we think there’s more room to run.
Our models suggest soybean prices could hit $11.70 per bushel by late 2026. That’s a legitimate opportunity in agricultural commodities that most investors are completely ignoring because, well, it’s soybeans.
But here’s the reality: this is the kind of unsexy play that actually makes money while everyone else is chasing the hot tech stock of the week.
The Trump-Xi summit wasn’t just theater. Real deals got made, and real market implications are playing out right now. But the obvious trades aren’t necessarily the right ones.
We’re watching chip stocks skeptically, staying cautious on defense, eyeing gold for profit-taking opportunities, getting more bullish on regionally-integrated Chinese companies, and yeah, actually considering agricultural commodities for the first time in years.
The market’s going to take a few weeks to fully digest what happened in Busan. Use that time wisely. The opportunities are there—you just have to know where to look.
What are you seeing in your portfolios? Hit reply and let us know what moves you’re making.
