Third-quarter earnings season has started strong, with major bank results helping lift markets despite recent volatility. According to FactSet’s John Butters, the S&P 500 will likely report earnings growth above 13% for the third quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth.
While solid earnings are becoming the norm, certain companies enter their reporting weeks with unusual momentum. Analyst sentiment has shifted dramatically higher for five S&P 500 stocks reporting next week, with estimate revisions suggesting potential for significant beats and positive guidance.
The pattern is clear: at least 13 analysts have raised earnings estimates for each company over the past three months, while price targets have climbed 10% or more during the same period. This combination of rising earnings expectations and price target increases often precedes strong stock performance around earnings announcements.
Lam Research (LRCX) – Reports October 22
Analyst Momentum: 29 upward EPS revisions in three months
Earnings Estimate Change: +22.7%
Price Target Change: +37.3% to $133.65
Lam Research leads the group with 29 upward earnings revisions over the past three months, the highest among stocks reporting next week. The semiconductor equipment manufacturer has benefited from AI-driven demand for advanced chip manufacturing equipment.
Current quarter earnings estimates have climbed 22.7% to $1.22 per share, while analyst price targets have surged 37.3% to an average of $133.65. Shares have gained approximately 96.5% year-to-date, reflecting strong execution in capturing AI infrastructure spending.
The company provides critical equipment for producing the advanced logic and memory chips powering AI data centers. As hyperscalers accelerate infrastructure buildouts, Lam Research stands positioned to report continued strength in orders and revenue guidance.
Newmont (NEM) – Reports October 23
Analyst Momentum: 26 upward EPS revisions
Earnings Estimate Change: +21.0%
Price Target Change: +40.6% to $95.89
Newmont has seen 26 upward earnings revisions as gold prices reached record highs this year. The world’s largest gold miner has gained more than 140% year-to-date, though shares pulled back 8% on Friday as gold retreated from all-time highs.
Earnings estimates have risen 21% to $1.43 per share for the current quarter, while price targets have jumped 40.6% to $95.89. Despite the recent pullback, Wall Street remains bullish on gold’s trajectory as central bank buying and broader volatility support safe-haven demand.
UBS analyst Daniel Major reiterated his buy rating in a Thursday note, stating: “We think NEM is well placed with expectations lower in 2026 and improving returns and buybacks to underpin the narrative of improving operational performance.”
Joe Terranova, chief market strategist for Virtus Investment Partners, told CNBC’s “Fast Money” that gold continues acting as a portfolio diversifier, supporting his continued Newmont ownership.
Amphenol (APH) – Reports October 22
Analyst Momentum: 21 upward EPS revisions
Earnings Estimate Change: +16.0%
Price Target Change: +34.3% to $131.00
Amphenol, a supplier of AI hardware connectivity solutions, has attracted 21 upward earnings revisions as analysts recognize the company’s positioning in data center infrastructure. Shares have climbed approximately 80% year-to-date.
Earnings estimates have risen 16% to $0.79 per share, while price targets increased 34.3% to $131.00. Bank of America recently upgraded Amphenol with a $150 price target, significantly above the average, suggesting potential for 17% upside from recent levels.
The firm cited strong AI rack volume, increased data center buildout, and robust M&A activity as catalysts. Amphenol’s broad product portfolio across interconnect solutions positions it to benefit from multiple aspects of AI infrastructure expansion.
Valero Energy (VLO) – Reports October 23
Analyst Momentum: 25 upward EPS revisions
Earnings Estimate Change: +14.2%
Price Target Change: +14.9% to $176.25
Valero Energy has received 25 upward earnings revisions, the second-highest among next week’s reporters. The refining company has benefited from favorable crack spreads and operational efficiency improvements.
Current quarter earnings estimates have climbed 14.2% to $2.99 per share, while analyst price targets rose 14.9% to $176.25. The energy stock provides exposure to refining margins rather than crude oil prices directly, creating different return drivers than exploration and production companies.
Refining fundamentals have remained supportive as domestic fuel demand stays resilient and export opportunities expand. Valero’s scale advantages and operational improvements position the company to deliver on elevated earnings expectations.
Globe Life (GL) – Reports October 22
Analyst Momentum: 13 upward EPS revisions
Earnings Estimate Change: +19.0%
Price Target Change: +12.6% to $165.58
Globe Life rounds out the list with 13 upward earnings revisions, meeting the threshold for significant analyst momentum. The insurance company has seen earnings estimates rise 19% to $4.60 per share, while price targets increased 12.6% to $165.58.
The insurance sector has benefited from higher interest rates improving investment income on float, while underwriting discipline has supported profitability. Globe Life’s focus on middle-income customers and direct distribution model provides differentiation from traditional insurance competitors.
Reading the Momentum Signals
Widespread upward earnings revisions typically indicate one of several scenarios: companies are guiding higher, industry fundamentals are improving faster than expected, or analysts previously underestimated business strength.
The concentration of estimate increases over just three months suggests recent developments rather than gradual reassessment. For AI-related names like Lam Research and Amphenol, accelerating infrastructure spending appears to be exceeding even bullish forecasts.
Newmont’s revisions reflect gold price strength translating directly to earnings, while Valero’s improvements suggest refining margins have been more resilient than anticipated. Globe Life’s revisions may reflect better-than-expected underwriting results or investment income performance.
Price Target Implications
The substantial price target increases averaging 14.9% to 40.6% indicate analysts believe current valuations don’t fully reflect improved earnings outlooks. Price targets theoretically represent fair value based on fundamental analysis, so increases of this magnitude suggest material changes to growth or profitability expectations.
However, several of these stocks have already appreciated significantly year-to-date. Lam Research and Amphenol are both up approximately 80% or more, while Newmont has surged over 140%. Whether further upside exists depends on earnings results exceeding even the elevated expectations already embedded in current prices.
Risks and Considerations
Stocks entering earnings with strong momentum face asymmetric risk. When expectations rise substantially, companies must not only beat estimates but provide guidance suggesting continued strength. Meeting elevated expectations may not be sufficient to drive further gains if guidance disappoints.
The recent market volatility tied to macroeconomic concerns and credit worries creates an uncertain backdrop. Even strong earnings could face selling pressure if broader market sentiment deteriorates or if companies express caution about future quarters.
For AI-related stocks like Lam Research and Amphenol, any indication that infrastructure spending is slowing or orders are normalizing could trigger sharp reversals despite strong current-quarter results. Newmont faces gold price sensitivity, where metal weakness could overshadow strong operational execution.
Valero’s refining margins remain exposed to crude oil price movements and demand fluctuations. Globe Life operates in a competitive insurance market where pricing discipline and claims experience can shift quickly.
Positioning for Earnings
For investors already holding these stocks, the analyst momentum provides confidence but shouldn’t eliminate caution. Taking partial profits ahead of earnings reduces risk while maintaining upside exposure. Setting stop-losses below key technical levels protects against unexpected disappointments.
New positions face the challenge of buying ahead of binary events with elevated expectations. Waiting for post-earnings clarity may sacrifice some upside but reduces the risk of buying before negative surprises.
Options strategies like selling out-of-the-money puts can generate income while potentially establishing positions at lower prices if stocks pull back. Covered calls on existing positions capture premium while capping upside if stocks surge further.
The concentration of earnings reports on October 22-23 means these stocks will move in a compressed timeframe. Sector correlation among AI names means Lam Research and Amphenol could move together based on overall infrastructure spending sentiment rather than company-specific results.
For investors seeking to play earnings momentum, these five stocks offer clear evidence that analyst sentiment has shifted significantly bullish in recent months. Whether that momentum translates to stock gains depends on results meeting or exceeding the elevated bar that recent estimate revisions have created.
