Roku (ROKU): Revenue Beat in Sight as Guidance Lags Behind Reality
Roku is shaping up as a solid earnings trade ahead of its July 31 report. While the stock is already up 23% this year, there’s reason to believe Wall Street still isn’t fully pricing in what’s coming next.
One thing to watch is platform revenue. Roku didn’t adjust its full-year forecast last quarter, even after acquiring Frndly—leaving plenty of room for a guidance boost if macro conditions hold steady. Based on current estimates, Frndly alone could add about $40 million to second-half revenue. If Roku folds that into its outlook, it could trigger a wave of positive revisions.
Tariffs are another factor. When the company gave guidance back on May 1, it was still facing stiff duties on devices sourced from China. That pressure has eased significantly since then, meaning Roku’s hardware margins could be stronger than expected this quarter.
JPMorgan just bumped its price target to $100 from $85, implying 10% upside from the $91.10 close on July 18. They reiterated an overweight rating and noted the setup going into Q2 looks favorable, with ad spend holding steady despite broader economic concerns.
If Roku delivers a clean beat and lifts guidance—especially on platform revenue—this name could break out of its current range. Worth watching closely into the end of the month.
