nCino (NASDAQ: NCNO) – A Fintech Name at a Potential Turning Point
We’ve been watching nCino (NCNO) closely over the past several months, and recent signals suggest it may be entering a new phase of growth worth paying attention to. While the stock has underperformed this year — down 8% year-to-date — we believe that may be creating an opportunity, not a warning.
Here’s the thesis: nCino has spent the last few quarters resetting expectations and reworking its internal strategy. While that kind of transition can be painful for shareholders in the short term, it often sets the stage for stronger performance down the line. That may be exactly where nCino is now.
Baird seems to agree, upgrading the stock to Outperform with a price target of $38, up from $30 — implying over 30% upside from recent levels. The bank pointed to improving macro conditions, new product momentum, and more aggressive go-to-market initiatives as key tailwinds. More importantly, their analyst came away from recent management meetings with a higher degree of confidence that execution is aligning with strategy.
There are two things in particular we’re tracking:
- Reacceleration of subscription revenue growth into the double digits.
- Confidence in achieving the “Rule of 40” — a benchmark that combines revenue growth and profit margin. For small-cap vertical software players, that’s a solid indicator of long-term potential.
Technically, the stock is still trading about 5–10% below where it was in late March, after a steep selloff earlier this year. But that dip appears to be stabilizing, and the current setup looks similar to what we’ve seen in other small-cap software names just before a meaningful rebound.
For investors willing to step in early — before the full recovery is priced in — this could be a good time to start a position or add to an existing one. Execution remains key, but the reset may be behind us, and a higher-growth chapter could be ahead.
