L3Harris Technologies (LHX): Positioned to Capture a Windfall from Trump’s $175 Billion Missile Defense Plan
L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX) is emerging as one of the top beneficiaries of what could become the most expensive missile defense initiative in U.S. history. President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” program—a sweeping, multi-layered missile shield—may never be fully completed, but it is already unlocking tens of billions in spending, much of which will flow directly into the hands of defense contractors like L3Harris.
Currently trading around $249.67, LHX is already up 19% year-to-date. But analysts at Bernstein see more room to run, reiterating their Overweight rating and assigning a $273 price target, implying nearly 10% upside.
Why the Golden Dome Is a Game-Changer (Even If It Fails)
Bernstein’s central thesis is that the sheer scale of the Golden Dome initiative will benefit defense contractors regardless of whether the project is ever completed. The system’s complexity—designed to defend the entire U.S. from a broad array of missile threats—will require a sprawling network of surveillance, communications, and interception technologies. That’s L3Harris’s wheelhouse.
Key points:
- $25 billion already allocated in the 2026 defense budget
- Trump has stated the total project could exceed $175 billion
- The system will require “cooperation from the entire industry,” with L3Harris named explicitly alongside Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman as top beneficiaries
- Even partial deployment will generate multi-year contracts for radar, secure comms, sensors, and EW systems—areas where LHX excels
As analyst Douglas Harned notes, “Companies can profit off efforts, even when they do not succeed.”
Why L3Harris Stands Out
Among the defense majors, L3Harris offers one of the cleanest ways to gain exposure to high-margin subsystems essential to missile defense. Unlike peers with legacy aerospace divisions under pressure, LHX is focused almost entirely on secure comms, surveillance, and electronic warfare—exactly what the Golden Dome will require.
Additionally:
- L3Harris has a strong track record of program execution and defense-grade reliability
- The company returned $800M to shareholders last quarter alone via buybacks and dividends
- Valuation remains reasonable at ~18x forward earnings, with a 2.0% dividend yield
Investment Thesis: A Rare Case Where Ambition Alone Creates Alpha
Defense programs don’t have to be completed to be profitable. As with past initiatives like Star Wars or Next-Gen Combat Systems, the budgetary flow matters more than project completion. Trump’s Golden Dome—regardless of its end result—is set to generate a tsunami of spending, and L3Harris is already in position to capture its share.
With bipartisan appetite for missile defense and the geopolitical climate keeping national security top of mind, LHX offers a timely opportunity to invest in a company standing at the intersection of political will, fiscal momentum, and technological necessity.
LHX remains a buy, with near-term upside to $273 and long-term exposure to one of the most capital-intensive defense programs in modern history.
