SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) — Gold’s Breakout Move Is Just Getting Started
Gold just broke through the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever — and if you think that means the rally is over, you might want to think again.
We’re adding SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSEARCA: GLDM) to our buy list this week based on several converging catalysts that could push gold significantly higher in the months and years ahead. This ETF offers affordable, efficient exposure to physical gold — without the costs and risks of storing the metal yourself.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
- GLDM is up 13.71% year-to-date as of March 14, 2025, and continues to gain momentum. The ETF holds physical bullion in secure vaults and tracks the spot price of gold, giving investors a direct, low-cost way to ride the gold wave.
- Bank of America sees gold averaging $3,063 in 2025 and climbing to $3,350 in 2026 — with upside to $3,500 per ounce if investment demand increases by just 10%. That kind of move would translate to major upside for GLDM.
- Global demand is heating up. China’s insurance sector has been greenlit to allocate up to 1% of assets into gold — equivalent to about 6% of the annual global market. Central banks already hold 10% of reserves in gold, but BofA analysts believe they could raise that to 30% or more.
- Retail flows are strong. Physically backed ETFs like GLDM saw assets under management rise 4% year-over-year across the Americas, Europe, and Asia.
- On the technical side, GLDM has broken out of a multi-month range and is trading near all-time highs, with rising volume. That signals strong institutional interest and confidence in gold as a hedge amid geopolitical tensions and currency devaluation.
And there’s the macro backdrop: With a volatile election season, renewed U.S.–China trade friction, and growing central bank gold buying, we think gold demand is likely to remain elevated. Bank of America notes that uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies could pressure the U.S. dollar — a tailwind for gold prices.
Bottom line:
GLDM is a cost-effective, liquid way to play a potential multi-year gold bull run. Its low 0.10% expense ratio gives it an edge over similar funds, and its performance has kept pace with the metal itself.
We’re initiating a Buy on GLDM with a short-term target in the $51–$53 range (current price ~$47.70 as of March 14), and we believe long-term holders could see even greater upside if gold continues its upward trajectory.
This is a position we’re comfortable building gradually, especially on any pullbacks. Safe-haven demand is no longer just a fear trade — it’s becoming a core allocation for both institutional and retail investors.
