Stocks were flat this morning as investors await critical August jobs data that could impact the Fed’s decision during their upcoming September policy meeting. With optimism fading that the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation without causing a significant economic slowdown, market expectations for the rest of the year remain unclear. The major indices were on track for their third negative week in a row after slumping into the final days of August.
Today we’ll discuss the risk-on/risk-off strategy that allows investors to maintain exposure to equities when the environment is positive and mitigate the extent of drawdowns while remaining invested as much as possible.
Global X Adaptive U.S. Risk Management ETF (ONOF) is designed to maintain exposure to the equity markets when the environment is positive and then move to a risk-off position when that trend reverses. The passively-managed portfolio provides exposure to the S&P 500 when conditions look favorable but rotates into 1-3 year Treasuries when market conditions look bad. The strategy seeks to mitigate the extent of drawdowns while remaining invested in equities as much as possible.
The methodology for this fund is a little more complicated than what you find in the typical ETF. The idea is that it looks at various technical indicators to make an allocation decision. The index is based on historical data from two short-term indicators: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the level of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), as well as two long-term indicators: 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and market drawdown percentage.
The trigger threshold for each signal is based on a predetermined Z-score. If the portfolio is in equities, it takes three negative indicators to switch the exposure to Treasuries. Once in Treasuries, it takes two positive indicators to switch to equities, thus, creating a higher hurdle to get out of the market than it is to enter. Based on the strategy, turnover in the portfolio should be higher than a buy-and-hold approach.
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